Can Hormuz be bypassed? Past shows commercial viability may simply not be there, analyst says

The G7’s push to find alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz is more than a logistical puzzle—it’s a test of the global economy’s ability to adapt to geopolitical risks that have long lurked beneath the surface. The strait, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil transits, has been a chokepoint for decades, vulnerable to military conflict, piracy, and political pressure. But the fact that major powers are now openly debating whether it can be bypassed suggests a growing unease: what if the traditional routes of global trade, so heavily concentrated in a handful of narrow waterways, are no longer tenable? This isn’t the first time such concerns have surfaced. In the 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq War, tankers were rerouted around southern Africa to avoid the Persian Gulf, proving that alternatives exist in theory. Yet the sheer scale of today’s energy trade—and the infrastructure built around Hormuz—makes any shift costly and complex. Pipelines like the East-West crude line in Saudi Arabia or the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline offer partial solutions, but they can’t handle the volume that Hormuz currently manages. The deeper issue is whether the world’s energy markets, which have grown increasingly interconnected and just-in-time, can tolerate the volatility of longer, riskier supply chains. The deeper significance here is economic, not just strategic. A prolonged disruption in Hormuz could send oil prices spiking, straining economies already grappling with inflation and supply chain fragility. But the G7’s deliberations also reveal something more unsettling: the assumption that global trade can always find a workaround may be overstated. The Strait of Malacca, the Bab el-Mandeb, and the Turkish Straits are all potential flashpoints. If Hormuz becomes too risky, will the next crisis simply shift the pressure elsewhere? The open question is whether bypassing Hormuz is commercially viable—or even desirable. For now, the debate underscores a harsh reality: the world’s energy security is still too dependent on a handful of fragile corridors. The search for alternatives isn’t just about finding new routes; it’s about acknowledging that the old system, built on decades of relative stability, may no longer hold.