Can Iran rebuild trust with its Gulf neighbors?
Since the beginning of the Iran war, Gulf countries have absorbed thousands of Iranian missile and drones, with Tehran taking aim at targets including US military bases and civilian energy infrastruc…
Since the beginning of the Iran war, Gulf countries have absorbed thousands of Iranian missile and drones, with Tehran taking aim at targets including
Read Full Story at DW World →Why This Matters
The escalating missile and drone strikes from Iran have not only deepened regional tensions but also exposed the Gulf’s vulnerability to asymmetric warfare—a stark reminder that even non-state actors can project power beyond their borders. For Gulf nations, the question now is whether Iran’s aggression can be met with deterrence or if diplomacy must take precedence to prevent further destabilization in an already volatile energy corridor.
Background Context
Iran’s use of precision-guided missiles and drones against Gulf infrastructure reflects a calculated shift from proxy conflicts to direct confrontation, a strategy likely influenced by the perceived weakness of regional security frameworks. Historically, Gulf states have relied on U.S. military presence for protection, but the recent strikes suggest Iran is testing the limits of this reliance while exploiting divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council.
What Happens Next
The immediate outcome hinges on whether Gulf nations can coordinate a unified response or if internal divisions will allow Iran to exploit diplomatic gaps. Observers should watch for signs of covert backchannel negotiations, as both sides may seek to de-escalate without appearing weak—especially as energy markets brace for another potential supply shock.
Bigger Picture
This confrontation underscores a broader trend of declining U.S. influence in the Gulf, where local actors are increasingly forced to balance between deterrence and dialogue. If unresolved, the pattern risks normalizing Iran’s military posturing, setting a dangerous precedent for how smaller states navigate great-power competition in the Middle East.
