Does Israel really think it can get rid of Hezbollah in Lebanon?
It’s hard to assume that ‘anything positive’ for Lebanon can come from its talks with Israel, argues analyst Imad Harb. Despite brokering a ceasefire on paper, the United States is not standing in t…
It’s hard to assume that ‘anything positive’ for Lebanon can come from its talks with Israel, argues analyst Imad Harb. Despite brokering a ceasefire
Read Full Story at Al Jazeera →Why This Matters
The possibility of Israel eliminating Hezbollah in Lebanon isn’t just a military question—it’s a geopolitical litmus test for the region’s fragile balance of power. A miscalculation here could escalate into a wider conflict, drawing in Iran, Syria, and global powers, while reshaping Lebanon’s already strained sovereignty. The stakes extend beyond Lebanon’s borders, testing whether diplomacy can outpace the drumbeat of war.
Background Context
Hezbollah’s arsenal, built over decades with Iranian backing, has transformed it from a guerrilla force into a state-within-a-state, capable of holding entire swaths of Lebanon hostage to its agenda. Israel’s historical campaigns—from the 1982 invasion to the 2006 war—have repeatedly failed to uproot the group, instead reinforcing its narrative as Lebanon’s sole defender against external threats. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s government, crippled by corruption and sectarian paralysis, lacks the capacity or will to assert control over Hezbollah’s military wing.
What Happens Next
If Israel escalates strikes to dismantle Hezbollah, Lebanon’s already collapsing infrastructure could face total collapse, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe that spills across borders. A prolonged conflict risks drawing Iran deeper into direct confrontation, while the U.S. may struggle to prevent an all-out regional war despite its mediation efforts. The ceasefire’s fragility hinges on whether either side can salvage face without crossing the other’s red lines—a gamble with no clear exit strategy.
Bigger Picture
This standoff reflects a broader erosion of deterrence in the Middle East, where proxy conflicts and asymmetric warfare have blurred the lines between state and non-state actors. The U.S. and Europe’s waning influence in shaping outcomes, combined with Israel’s growing willingness to act unilaterally, suggests a new phase of unpredictable military adventurism. For Lebanon, the question isn’t just whether Hezbollah can be defeated—but whether the country can survive the attempt.
