Ethiopia must not be dragged back into war
In October 2022, the negotiating teams from the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) met in Pretoria, South Africa, to make peace. Our meeting and talks took …
In October 2022, the negotiating teams from the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) met in Pretoria, South Af
Read Full Story at Al Jazeera →Why This Matters
The Pretoria peace talks represent a fragile but critical moment for Ethiopia’s stability after two years of brutal conflict that left tens of thousands dead and millions displaced. A relapse into war would not only devastate a nation already grappling with economic collapse but could reignite ethnic tensions across a volatile region, threatening wider Horn of Africa security.
Background Context
Ethiopia’s civil war erupted in November 2020 when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered a military offensive against the TPLF, the dominant political force in Tigray, accusing it of attacking federal forces. The conflict escalated into a multi-front war involving regional militias and foreign actors, while the Ethiopian government imposed a devastating blockade on Tigray that cut off food aid to millions.
What Happens Next
Implementation of the Pretoria agreement faces immense hurdles, including disarmament of TPLF forces, restoration of regional services, and political reconciliation in a country still deeply divided along ethnic lines. The risk of spoilers—both military and political—remains high, with reports of sporadic clashes already testing fragile ceasefire lines.
Bigger Picture
Ethiopia’s trajectory mirrors broader challenges in post-conflict nation-building across Africa, where fragile peace deals often collapse without sustained international engagement and domestic buy-in. The failure or success of this process could set a precedent for how Ethiopia navigates its federalist experiment amid rising ethnic nationalism and geopolitical rivalries.
