For Israel, US-Iran deal a 'disaster' incompatible with its security interests

The U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even in its preliminary form, represents a seismic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics—and Israel’s visceral rejection underscores how deeply its security calculus has been upended. For Jerusalem, the deal signals not just a respite in regional tensions but a fundamental erosion of deterrence against Tehran, which has spent decades cultivating proxies and nuclear ambitions while avoiding direct confrontation. The 60-day negotiating window that follows is less a path to peace than a gamble that Iran, emboldened by sanctions relief and international legitimacy, will moderate its behavior—an assumption Israel views as dangerously naive. This reaction is rooted in a history of distrust. Israel’s intelligence community has long warned that any deal allowing Iran to retain its nuclear infrastructure or regional influence would merely delay, not dismantle, its threat. Past agreements, like the 2015 JCPOA, were criticized for failing to curb Iran’s ballistic missile program or its support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Now, with the Strait’s reopening—critical for global oil flows—the deal risks normalizing Iran’s role as a de facto stakeholder in regional stability, further sidelining Israel’s security demands. The broader implications are stark. If Washington prioritizes diplomatic engagement over military deterrence, it could embolden other adversaries, from Hezbollah to the Houthis, to escalate with impunity. Israel’s insistence that the deal is incompatible with its interests reflects a deeper fear: that the U.S. is recalibrating its Middle East posture in ways that leave Jerusalem more isolated. Whether this leads to unilateral Israeli action—military or otherwise—remains an open question, but the tension between Washington and Jerusalem is now more visible than at any point in decades. For regional players, the deal also raises uncomfortable truths. Gulf states, already uneasy about U.S. reliability, may accelerate their own hedging strategies, while Iran’s hardliners could exploit the moment to consolidate power. The coming months will test whether diplomacy can outpace escalation—or if the Middle East is merely lurching toward a new, more volatile equilibrium.