Hardliners and moderates: What do Iran’s factions think of deal with US?

The announcement of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has reignited long-standing tensions between Iran’s political factions, exposing deep divisions over engagement with Washington. This deal, though preliminary, represents a potential shift in Iran’s diplomatic posture—one that hardliners may see as a concession to Western pressure, while moderates could view it as a pragmatic step toward easing sanctions. The outcome will hinge on whether this framework survives the political crossfire in Tehran, where Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s ultimate approval remains the decisive factor. Historically, Iran’s political landscape has been split between factions prioritizing ideological resistance to the U.S. and those favoring tactical diplomacy. The 2015 nuclear deal, though later abandoned by the Trump administration, was a rare moment of cross-factional consensus, albeit fragile. Today, hardliners, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and conservative clerics, likely view any U.S. engagement with skepticism, fearing it could normalize relations under terms unfavorable to Iran. Moderates, including President Ebrahim Raisi’s government and reformist voices, may argue that limited cooperation—even with Washington—could alleviate economic strain, particularly as sanctions cripple Iran’s oil exports and currency. The immediate question is whether this memorandum will translate into enforceable agreements or collapse under domestic opposition. Hardliners could sabotage implementation by stalling negotiations or framing the deal as a betrayal of revolutionary principles. Meanwhile, moderates may push for incremental steps to rebuild trust, betting that economic relief could bolster their political standing ahead of future elections. Broader geopolitical dynamics also complicate this calculus. Iran’s alignment with Russia and China provides an alternative to Western engagement, reducing its urgency to compromise with Washington. Yet, if this deal signals a thaw, it could embolden other Middle Eastern states to seek similar arrangements, reshaping regional power balances. Ultimately, Iran’s factions are not just deciding the fate of a single agreement—they are determining whether diplomacy can outlast decades of hostility.