How to handle armed groups? Colombians vote in presidential election
Colombians are heading to the polls Sunday. With current president Gustavo Petro stepping down, the search for his successor is seen as a referendum on his leftist social policies and response to gro…
Colombians are heading to the polls Sunday. With current president Gustavo Petro stepping down, the search for his successor is seen as a referendum o
Read Full Story at France 24 →Why This Matters
The Colombian presidential election represents more than a routine political transition—it is a pivotal moment for the Andean nation’s ongoing struggle to redefine its social contract amid persistent armed conflict and economic inequality. The outcome will test whether Petro’s progressive agenda, which sought to dismantle decades of clientelism and violence, can endure or if a conservative backlash will reverse course. For a country where armed groups still exert territorial control, the vote is also a referendum on the state’s ability to monopolize force and deliver peace.
Background Context
Colombia’s political landscape remains scarred by its half-century civil war, which only formally ended in 2016 under the Havana Accords—yet armed factions like the ELN and dissident FARC groups continue to operate, particularly in rural areas. Petro’s tenure marked a historic shift toward leftist governance, prioritizing social reforms and negotiations with armed groups, but his departure leaves a vacuum at a time when violence is surging in regions like Arauca and Chocó. Meanwhile, Colombia’s economic model, long reliant on extractive industries, faces pressure from both global commodity shifts and domestic demands for redistribution.
What Happens Next
The election outcome hinges on whether voters prioritize Petro’s legacy of social investment or recoil from the perceived risks of his policies, including stalled security gains and inflationary pressures. A right-leaning victory could reignite hardline anti-guerrilla strategies, while a continuity candidate might struggle to maintain momentum without Petro’s populist appeal. Key watchpoints include the performance of third-party candidates, who could act as kingmakers, and the response of armed groups—whether they interpret the vote as a mandate for dialogue or escalation.
Bigger Picture
This election is part of a broader regional shift where leftist leaders, from Mexico to Chile, are grappling with the limits of their transformative agendas amid economic headwinds and security crises. Colombia’s experience underscores a global paradox: as democratic backsliding threatens institutions, voters are increasingly willing to experiment with radical change—but impatient for tangible results. The results may also signal whether Latin America’s peace processes, once hailed as models, can survive political turnover or if the cycle of violence will persist unabated.
