If Cuba collapses, the US will be forced to deal with the consequences of its actions
It's only a couple of months or so since I was last in Cuba, and conditions then were pretty dire: power cuts, large queues for bread and fuel, state-run grocery stores virtually empty, mounting pile…
It's only a couple of months or so since I was last in Cuba, and conditions then were pretty dire: power cuts, large queues for bread and fuel, state-
Read Full Story at Sky News →Why This Matters
The potential collapse of Cuba’s government would force the U.S. to confront the unintended consequences of decades of policy failures, from the embargo’s humanitarian toll to the fragility of regional stability. It would also expose the limits of Washington’s influence in shaping outcomes in Latin America, where ideological divides and economic pressures often outpace diplomatic strategies.
Background Context
Cuba’s crisis is rooted in a perfect storm of external shocks—U.S. sanctions, pandemic disruptions, and Venezuela’s decline as an oil supplier—compounded by systemic inefficiencies in its centrally planned economy. Despite modest reforms, the state’s monopoly on critical goods and services has left citizens trapped in cycles of scarcity, while its political leadership clings to power amid eroding legitimacy.
What Happens Next
Should Cuba’s government falter, the U.S. may face a humanitarian emergency at its doorstep, with mass migration flows testing border policies already under strain. Meanwhile, regional actors like Venezuela and Russia could exploit the power vacuum, while China’s economic footprint in the Caribbean could expand further, reshaping geopolitical alignments in ways Washington may struggle to counter.
Bigger Picture
This crisis underscores a broader decline in state capacity across the Global South, where external pressures and internal mismanagement collide to create tinderbox conditions. It also highlights the U.S.’s diminishing leverage in the Western Hemisphere, where sanctions and isolation tactics often backfire, leaving Washington with fewer tools to manage instability without triggering greater chaos.
