Democrats lead Republicans by 12 points in NBC News poll

Democrats hold the largest lead of any party in NBC News’ latest polling averages for the 2026 congressional races, with a 12‑point advantage over Republicans for the House and a 9‑point edge for the Senate, according to data released Tuesday. The numbers come as President Donald Trump’s approval rating has slipped to a historic low for his second term, hovering around 31 percent, the lowest point since he left office in 2021. The polling reflects a nation still divided over the president’s agenda and the broader direction of the country.

The shift in voter sentiment follows a turbulent second year for the Trump administration. Inflation has eased but wages have not kept pace, and a series of legal battles over the president’s post‑election claims have kept the administration in the headlines. Meanwhile, Democrats have capitalized on gains in suburban districts, higher turnout among younger voters, and a coordinated fundraising push that outpaced Republican coffers in the first half of the year. Recent scandals involving senior Trump allies have also eroded confidence among swing voters, contributing to the president’s declining approval.

Both parties are now racing to solidify their positions ahead of the November midterms. Democrats plan to field a slate of candidates who can appeal to moderates in key swing states, emphasizing bipartisan legislation on infrastructure and climate resilience. Republicans, meanwhile, are regrouping around a message of “law and order” and promising tax cuts, hoping to rally their base and win back disaffected independents. Political analysts warn that the race remains fluid; a single high‑profile event or economic shift could narrow the gap. As the campaign season intensifies, the next few months will determine whether the current polling advantage translates into a decisive congressional majority for either side.