Investor Chris Camillo Predicts The ‘Last Easy Trade’ of the AI Supercycle Is About to Start
Chris Camillo says the AI supercycle’s Wave 3 “efficiency wave” (companies using AI to cut costs) is the “last easy trade” that investors have not fully priced in. Camillo expects Wave 3 winners to …
Chris Camillo says the AI supercycle’s Wave 3 “efficiency wave” (companies using AI to cut costs) is the “last easy trade” that investors have not ful
Read Full Story at Yahoo Finance →Why This Matters
The "efficiency wave" in AI represents a paradigm shift from speculative frenzy to tangible, measurable value creation—a rare moment where investors can still buy into a high-growth trend before broad market awareness catches up. Unlike the initial waves of AI adoption driven by hype or infrastructure bets, this phase rewards companies with the operational discipline to deploy AI as a cost-cutting weapon, creating asymmetric upside for early backers.
Background Context
AI supercycles historically unfold in waves: first, the infrastructure build-out (GPUs, cloud services), followed by enterprise adoption (software, automation tools). The third wave—cost efficiency—has historically been the most lucrative but also the most overlooked, as investors fixate on revenue growth over operational leverage. Past examples, like cloud computing in the 2010s, saw similar "last easy trade" dynamics before mainstream recognition.
What Happens Next
Expect a rotation into sectors where AI-driven productivity gains are already visible—logistics, manufacturing, and back-office operations—before valuation multiples expand. The risk lies in overestimating the speed of adoption, as legacy systems and regulatory hurdles may delay payoffs. Key catalysts to watch include earnings reports from industrial firms and AI-as-a-service providers in Q3-Q4 2024.
Bigger Picture
This marks a maturation of AI from a "nice-to-have" to a "must-have" for competitiveness, mirroring how e-commerce evolved from a niche experiment to a retail necessity. The efficiency wave could redefine corporate profitability in the 2020s, much as the internet did in the 1990s—except this time, the benefits may accrue to incumbents rather than disruptors.
