Iran conflict: Why has oil stayed near $100 a barrel?
The worst-case oil scenario has been avoided, but inflation and slower growth continue to weigh on the global economy. More than 100 days into the Iran conflict, 20 percent of the world’s energy flo…
The worst-case oil scenario has been avoided, but inflation and slower growth continue to weigh on the global economy. More than 100 days into the Ir
Read Full Story at Al Jazeera →Why This Matters
The stability of oil prices near $100 a barrel—despite geopolitical tensions that could have triggered far higher spikes—reveals the resilience of global energy markets amid fragmentation. It also underscores how strategic reserves, alternative supply routes, and speculative trading have become critical buffers against supply shocks, even as inflation pressures persist. The absence of a worst-case scenario so far raises a troubling question: Is the market lulled into complacency, or has the world become too adaptable to crisis?
Background Context
Iran’s role in global oil markets extends beyond its own production—it controls key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of maritime oil transit occurs. The conflict’s longevity, now stretching over 100 days, has forced buyers to diversify purchases while Iran itself has leveraged its leverage, balancing direct attacks with calibrated restraint to avoid provoking a full-scale regional war. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies have relied on a mix of sanctions enforcement, covert operations, and diplomatic backchannels to limit disruptions without escalating hostilities.
What Happens Next
Watch for signs of whether Iran’s indirect negotiations with Western powers will yield a temporary de-escalation or if proxies like the Houthis or Hezbollah will escalate attacks to test red lines. A sustained drop in oil prices below $90 could signal either a breakthrough or a market miscalculation of risk. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s next policy meeting will be a litmus test for whether the cartel prioritizes price stability or revenue maximization in an era of shrinking demand growth.
Bigger Picture
This conflict is accelerating the decoupling of energy security from traditional alliances, with countries like China and India increasingly insulating themselves from Western sanctions by deepening ties with Tehran. It also highlights how energy markets have become a proxy battleground for broader geopolitical struggles, where supply chains are weaponized not just for leverage but as a form of economic warfare. The longer oil hovers near triple digits, the harder it becomes to ignore the structural shifts rewiring global energy—shifts that may outlast the immediate crisis.
