Iran's hardliners fear being sidelined in US deal

The looming finalization of an Iran-US memorandum of understanding (MoU) has exposed deep fissures within Iran’s political establishment, where hardliners—traditionally the most powerful bloc—now sense their dominance slipping. The agreement, expected to be formalized Friday, represents more than just a diplomatic deal; it signals a potential recalibration of Iran’s internal power dynamics, particularly between reformists and hardliners. The tension is not merely rhetorical but structural, rooted in fears that even modest concessions on sanctions relief or regional influence could undermine the hardliners’ narrative of resistance against Western pressure. Their unease stems from a long-standing strategy that has framed confrontation with the U.S. as both a foreign policy doctrine and a domestic legitimacy tool—one that has justified their control over security institutions, economic patronage, and state media. This moment is unfolding against a backdrop of economic strain and elite fragmentation. Iran’s economy, already weakened by years of U.S. sanctions and mismanagement, faces renewed pressure as hardliners warn that any deal will fail to deliver tangible benefits. Meanwhile, reformist factions and pragmatic conservatives argue that the MoU could stabilize the economy and ease public discontent, which has simmered in protests over inflation and unemployment. The hardliners’ resistance is also a reaction to their perceived decline in influence. Supreme Leader Khamenei has historically balanced factions, but the rising profile of President Raisi—a hardliner backed by Khamenei—has not translated into unchecked power. The MoU’s success could embolden moderates, while its failure might reinforce hardliner grip on power. Looking ahead, the deal’s implementation will hinge on whether it delivers immediate economic relief or becomes another symbol of unfulfilled promises. Hardliners may seek to sabotage the agreement through bureaucratic obstruction or escalated regional proxy activity, testing the new MoU’s durability. The broader trend here is the fragile equilibrium between Iran’s revolutionary ideology and its pragmatic survival instincts—a tension that predates the current deal but now risks boiling over. For Washington, the MoU is a test of whether diplomacy can outpace Tehran’s internal power struggles. For Iran’s hardliners, it’s a fight to preserve a system that has defined their rule for decades.