Middle East live: Iran's Revolutionary Guards say missiles targeted US base in Jordan and Bahrain
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Wednesday they had struck four targets at a US base in Jordan and one in Bahrain, as Tehran pressed its attack in response to fresh US strikes over the downing of a h…
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Wednesday they had struck four targets at a US base in Jordan and one in Bahrain, as Tehran pressed its attack in res
Read Full Story at France 24 →Why This Matters
The latest escalation marks a dangerous shift in Iran’s asymmetric strategy, signaling a willingness to directly target U.S. assets beyond proxy conflicts. This move could force Washington to recalibrate its deterrence posture in the Gulf, where decades of careful balance between confrontation and containment now face a new test. The timing—amid fragile ceasefire talks and regional de-escalation efforts—risks unraveling fragile diplomatic threads.
Background Context
The Revolutionary Guards’ claim builds on a history of retaliatory strikes that blend retaliation with psychological warfare, often calibrated to avoid all-out war. Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, has long been a flashpoint for Iranian influence operations, while Jordan’s role as a logistical hub for U.S. counterterrorism efforts makes it a strategic target. The broader pattern reflects Iran’s doctrine of "forward defense," where proxies and direct strikes are used to deter adversaries without triggering full-scale conflict.
What Happens Next
Expect a measured but forceful U.S. response, likely through cyber or intelligence-led strikes to avoid further escalation, while maintaining diplomatic pressure to prevent regional spillover. The key variable is whether Iran’s allies in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen escalate in solidarity, which could drag Washington into a broader confrontation. Watch for signals from Gulf states—particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE—on whether they distance themselves from U.S. actions or seek to mediate.
Bigger Picture
This episode underscores the erosion of the post-2015 nuclear deal’s constraints, as Iran increasingly weaponizes its ballistic missile program to counter perceived U.S. aggression. The pattern fits a broader regional trend where state actors—from Tehran to Ankara—exploit gray-zone tactics to avoid direct war while advancing strategic interests. For the Biden administration, the challenge is to deter without feeding Iran’s narrative of victimization, a delicate balance in an era of fragmented alliances.
