Middle East live: Vance says Strait of Hormuz will reopen without tolls

The announcement that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen without tolls under a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal marks a pivotal moment in Middle East geopolitics, one that extends far beyond the immediate question of maritime access. The Strait is the world’s most critical chokepoint for oil transit, with roughly one-fifth of global crude passing through its waters daily. Any disruption there would send shockwaves through energy markets, spike fuel prices, and strain economies already grappling with inflation and supply chain fragility. Vance’s insistence that Iran must uphold its end of the bargain before sanctions ease adds a layer of conditional urgency—raising the stakes for both diplomacy and deterrence. If successful, this deal could signal a rare de-escalation in a region long defined by proxy conflicts and brinkmanship. If it collapses, it risks reinforcing the cycle of distrust that has long plagued U.S.-Iran relations. Yet the backdrop is far more complex than the headline suggests. The Strait has been a flashpoint for years, not just as a shipping lane but as a symbol of Iran’s leverage. Tehran has periodically threatened to disrupt traffic in response to sanctions or perceived provocations, most notably during the "Tanker Wars" of the 1980s and in recent years through its support for Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. The U.S. and its allies have responded with a mix of naval patrols, sanctions enforcement, and deterrence strategies, but none have fully stabilized the region. The current push for a deal comes amid broader shifts: Iran’s economic isolation, its deepening ties with Russia and China, and the Biden administration’s balancing act between pressure and engagement. Vance’s remarks may also reflect a pragmatic acknowledgment that, despite decades of hostility, some form of détente—however fragile—is necessary to stabilize the Gulf. What happens next is uncertain. If Iran adheres to commitments, the Strait could see a surge in traffic, easing global energy concerns and potentially paving the way for broader economic rehabilitation. But skepticism is warranted. Past agreements, from the 2015 nuclear deal to intermittent ceasefires, have faltered under domestic pressures in Tehran and Washington alike. The question of enforcement remains thorny: How will compliance be verified, and what penalties would follow violations? Meanwhile, regional actors like Saudi Arabia and Israel may view any U.S.-Iran thaw with suspicion, fearing a shift in the balance of power. For now, the announcement is a glimmer of hope—but one that will demand more than words to become reality.