Mixed reactions in Lebanon and Israel over Iran-US ceasefire

The tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the promise of reopening the Strait of Hormuz have injected a fragile sense of relief into a region long accustomed to tension, but the mixed reactions from Lebanon and Israel underscore just how fragile that relief may prove. For Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah remains a dominant political and military force, the ceasefire’s survival is seen through the prism of its own deepening crisis. The country’s economic collapse and political paralysis have left it increasingly dependent on regional actors, and any easing of tensions between Washington and Tehran could ease pressure on Hezbollah’s patrons—at least temporarily. Yet skepticism runs deep, especially among those who fear that a temporary lull in hostilities could merely mask deeper strategic shifts, leaving Lebanon once again caught in the crossfire of proxy conflicts it can ill afford. Israel’s response, meanwhile, reflects a long-standing apprehension that any U.S.-Iran détente is a strategic misstep in the making. Jerusalem has long viewed Iran’s regional influence—particularly through Hezbollah and other proxies—as an existential threat, and any perceived accommodation with Tehran risks emboldening its adversaries. The ceasefire’s terms, even if preliminary, could be interpreted in Tel Aviv as a signal that Washington is prioritizing de-escalation over deterrence, a shift that could reshape Israel’s own calculations vis-à-vis Hezbollah and its northern border. The uncertainty isn’t just about immediate security concerns; it touches on the broader question of whether the U.S. is recalibrating its Middle East policy in ways that leave traditional allies feeling exposed. The broader significance of this moment lies in its potential to redraw the fault lines of regional power dynamics. A sustained ceasefire could weaken the argument for continued confrontation, giving way to diplomatic engagement that, if mismanaged, might normalize Iran’s regional role. Yet the challenges are immense: hardliners on both sides have little incentive to compromise, and the specter of past failures—from the JCPOA’s collapse to the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani—looms large. For now, the ceasefire remains a tentative step, one that could either stabilize the region or set the stage for the next cycle of escalation, depending on whether it survives the first real test of implementation.