Russia 'bogged down' in Ukraine, suffering net territorial losses for first the time since 2023
Angela Diffley is pleased to welcome Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative. He offers a forceful assessment of the evolving dynamics of Russia's war against Ukraine. Rejecting …
Angela Diffley is pleased to welcome Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative. He offers a forceful assessment of the evolving dyn
Read Full Story at France 24 →Why This Matters
The shift from territorial gains to net losses marks a critical inflection point in the war, signaling that Russia’s military strategy, once characterized by slow but steady advances, is now faltering under sustained Ukrainian pressure. This development not only redefines the battlefield calculus but also tests the resilience of Moscow’s war machine, which has long relied on incremental gains and domestic propaganda to sustain public support.
Background Context
After a year of relative stalemate in 2023, Russia’s winter and spring offensives in 2024 briefly reversed the tide, allowing Moscow to claim limited territorial victories. However, Ukraine’s counteroffensive tactics—particularly in the east—have exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s logistical chains and manpower reserves, reversing the momentum. The shift also coincides with Ukraine’s growing access to long-range Western weapons, which have enabled more precise strikes on Russian supply routes and command centers.
What Happens Next
The coming months will likely see a renewed focus on Ukraine’s ability to exploit these losses, with potential breakthroughs in key sectors like Donetsk or Kherson. Russia may respond by escalating mobilizations or deepening its reliance on proxy forces, while Western allies face pressure to accelerate arms deliveries—particularly air defense systems—to prevent further territorial erosion. A prolonged stalemate could force both sides to reassess their war aims, with Ukraine pushing for a decisive counteroffensive and Russia doubling down on attrition warfare.
Bigger Picture
This reversal underscores a broader erosion of Russia’s military reputation, which has relied on an aura of inevitability to deter Western support for Ukraine. It also highlights the fragility of authoritarian war strategies, where battlefield setbacks can rapidly erode domestic confidence and international credibility. As the conflict enters its fourth year, the dynamics are increasingly resembling a prolonged stalemate—one where neither side can afford a decisive victory, but both risk collapse if the status quo persists.
