The Strait of Hormuz Has Been Closed for 100 Days. Why Aren’t Oil Prices Higher?
President Donald Trump says a secret mission moved 100 million barrels of oil through the blocked Strait of Hormuz. That number is impossible to verify.
President Donald Trump says a secret mission moved 100 million barrels of oil through the blocked Strait of Hormuz. That number is impossible to verif
Read Full Story at Wired →Why This Matters
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz for 100 days—one of the world's most critical chokepoints for oil transit—should theoretically send shockwaves through global energy markets, yet prices have remained eerily stable. This paradox reveals a troubling disconnect between geopolitical risks and market realities, exposing the fragile resilience of an oil-dependent world that has learned to adapt to disruptions rather than confront them.
Background Context
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes, has been a flashpoint for decades, but its closure rarely lasts long enough to test the global system’s limits. While Iran has periodically threatened or carried out attacks on tankers in the region, a full blockage of this magnitude is unprecedented in recent history, raising questions about whether it reflects a calculated gamble or a miscalculation by regional actors.
What Happens Next
The coming weeks will determine whether this is a temporary anomaly or the beginning of a new normal in global oil flows. If the closure persists, the strategic shift toward alternative routes—such as the East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia or increased reliance on U.S. shale—could reshape energy trade for years. Meanwhile, the absence of a price surge suggests that either the market doesn’t believe the threat is credible, or it has already priced in the disruption without showing it.
Bigger Picture
This episode underscores a broader trend: the decoupling of geopolitical risks from immediate economic consequences in the oil market. Years of diversification, strategic reserves, and the rise of non-OPEC producers have created a buffer that dulls the impact of even the most severe supply disruptions. Yet this resilience comes at a cost—delayed action on transitioning away from fossil fuels, leaving the world vulnerable to sudden shocks when these buffers inevitably erode.
