With Iran deal, Trump told ships to 'start your engines.' That's not happening yet

The Trump administration’s recent push to revive the Iran nuclear deal has collided with a stubborn reality: the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes, remains a powder keg of geopolitical tension. The headline’s imagery—ships idling in the Strait as diplomats debate—captures a paradox at the heart of U.S. policy. Even as Washington signals a willingness to return to the 2015 agreement, the broader security calculus in the Persian Gulf hasn’t shifted. Iran’s continued ballistic missile tests, its support for regional proxies, and its seizures of foreign vessels have turned the Strait into a chokepoint where economic leverage and military posturing intertwine. For policymakers, the dilemma is clear: any deal must address not just Iran’s nuclear program but also its destabilizing regional behavior—a far thornier challenge than uranium enrichment. Behind the diplomatic maneuvering lies a decade of escalation. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was never a standalone solution; it was meant to buy time while broader issues—like Iran’s regional ambitions—were addressed separately. But the Trump administration’s 2018 withdrawal from the deal and its "maximum pressure" campaign only exacerbated tensions, prompting Iran to steadily breach its nuclear limits and expand its military footprint. Now, with President Biden signaling a return to negotiations, the question isn’t just whether Iran will comply—it’s whether the U.S. and its allies can enforce terms that account for the new realities of Iran’s military and proxy networks. What happens next is uncertain. If diplomacy stalls, the Strait of Hormuz could see more seizures, or worse, a direct confrontation between Iranian forces and Western naval patrols. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional allies—from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen—remain active players, complicating any effort to isolate Tehran diplomatically. The broader trend here is the erosion of confidence in multilateral agreements. Just as the JCPOA struggled to survive U.S. withdrawal, future nuclear deals may face similar skepticism, leaving allies to hedge their bets with private military or economic measures. For now, the ships remain at anchor, but the currents of war and negotiation continue to swirl beneath them.